Global Imbalances and the US Debt Problem – Should Developing Countries Support the US Dollar?

May 31, 2009
Global Imbalances and the US Debt Problem

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Contents
1.  Should Developing Countries Support the US Dollar?

-The History of the US Debt Problem
-The Financing of US Deficits by Developing Countries
-About this Book and the Next Volume

2.  Global Imbalances and Emerging Markets
- The Likelihood of a Disorderly Correction
- The Impact on Emerging Markets
- What Countries Can Do
- Conclusion

3.  Global Imbalances and Latin America: A Comment on Eichengreen and Park Barbara Stallings
- The “Upbeat Model”
- Non-Asian Emerging Market Countries
- Politics of Policy Recommendations
- Conclusions

4 The Dilemmas and Dangers of the Build-Up of US Debt: Proposals for Policy Responses

- US Debt and Global Imbalances
- Risks in Failing to Address the US Foreign Debt Problem
- How Should the Problem Be Addressed and By Whom?
- Conclusions

5 Currency Asymmetry, Global Imbalances, and Rethinking of
the International Currency System

- China’s Trade Has Been Mostly Balanced in the Past 28 Years
- China’s Trade Imbalance With the US and the New Supply Chain in Asia
- Where Did China’s Large Foreign Exchange Reserve Come From?
- National Savings and Global Imbalance
- The “Currency Asymmetry” and the Persistent Tendency of US Dollar Devaluation
- Effective and Real Exchange Rate: What Is Developing Countries’ Responsibility for Global Imbalance?
- Concluding Remarks

6. China’s Macroeconomic Imbalances: The Liquidity Tango Mechanism

- Systemic Inflationary Tendency: The Liquidity Tango Until 1995
- Suspending the Liquidity Tango: Current Account Surpluses in 1994-2005
- The SOBs Are Undermining the State’s Fiscal Position
- Freeing the Interest Rate and the Exchange Rate to Address Macroeconomic Imbalances?
- Fixing the Banking System to Facilitate Macroeconomic Management
- Conclusion

7. How Effective Is Monetary Policy in China? A Comment on Woo’s “Inflationary Tango”

- The Model of “Inflationary Tango”
- Questions About the Response Functions of Chinese Economic Agents
- Policy Implications

8. Asian Monetary Coordination and Global Imbalances

- Asia’s Crisis and the Call for Monetary Cooperation
- Investing Abroad or At Home?
- Hurdles to Monetary Cooperation
- Concluding Remarks

9. Understanding Imbalances in a Globalised International Economic System

- Why the Current Imbalances Are Unlike Any Other
- Analysing Regional Imbalances Through Regional Policy Choices
- The Imbalances Are Likely to Persist Unless Regional Policies Change
- Are There Medium-Term Forces that Can Undermine Policies?

10. Policy Recommendations for the US, Europe and Asia: By Way of Epilogue

-The Responsibility of the United States
- Is Europe Powerless?
- The Possibilities for Asia
- Concluding Remarks



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